Musk Gave Mars in 2026 Even Odds. SpaceX’s Page Now Says 2028 at the Earliest

In May 2025, Elon Musk put the odds of an uncrewed Starship leaving for Mars at the end of 2026 at 50-50, and tied it to one test: refuelling in Earth orbit (Reuters, via Al Jazeera). Today SpaceX's own Mars page says cargo flights to the Martian surface "start no earlier than 2028", and Space.com wrote on October 14, 2026 that there was no propellant transfer demonstration "yet in the books".